NFL odds Week 11: How to bet Rams-Saints, pick

The Los Angles Rams head to Cajun Country to face the New Orleans Saints in a Week 11 NFL matchup. 

The Rams are coming off a disappointing 27-17 loss to division-rival Arizona Cardinals, while the Saints are also reeling after a 20-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Rams-Saints game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and insight from Warren Sharp (odds via FOX Bet):

RELATED: Week 11 odds, lines

Rams at Saints (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Saints -3 (Mascot favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Rams cover)
Moneyline: Saints -182 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $15.49 total); Rams +140 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $24 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 38.5 points scored by both teams combined

Los Angeles Rams

LAR

New Orleans Saints

NO

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

In one of the lowest totals of the weekend, we have the absolutely inept Rams offense, down their best weapon, taking on the Saints with a bottom-10 offense despite playing the NFL’s third-easiest schedule of defenses.

Starting on the Saints side of the ball, this team has played just four offenses that rank above average this season. Here is what they’ve put up:

  • 10 points against No. 7 Bucs defense
  • 26 points vs. No. 10 Bengals defense
  • 13 points against No. 12 Ravens defense
  • 10 points vs. No. 14 Steelers defense

The 26-point outburst vs. the Bengals in mid-October seems like a year ago, as the Saints offense has regressed massively since then. In general, they are doing very little against above-average defenses, and now they must face another one in the No. 15 defense of the Rams.

The Saints are sticking with Andy Dalton, and they are leaning more and more into the run. They are the seventh-most run-heavy team on the season, trying to keep the ball out of Dalton’s hands when possible. But now they’re going up against the toughest run defense they’ve faced all season, the No. 4 run defense of the Rams.

And this offensive line is in major flux, given injuries. Last week starting G Andrus Peat missed due to a triceps injury (his first missed game of the season). In Wednesday’s practice report, Peat didn’t practice, nor did the following linemen who started last week: LT James Hurst (concussion), RT Ryan Ramczyk (illness) and C Josh Andrews (illness). We would expect the two players with illnesses to be back in time for this game, but they might be down their LT, who has played 100% of offensive snaps in every single game this season before his concussion last week.

It shouldn’t be surprising that Alvin Kamara has averaged just 3.4 YPC over the last three weeks. Now you can only imagine how things will fare against the strongest run defense of the season, potentially down two season-long starters from this offensive line (Peat and Hurst).

The Saints saw the return of Jarvis Landry last week, but he runs into a bad matchup this week, as the Rams rank No. 3 in yards per target to slot WRs and No. 1 in yards per catch to slot WRs.

On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford has completed 77.4% of his passes for 8.7 YPA and six touchdowns to Cooper Kupp and then 66.5% of his passes for 6.0 YPA and two touchdowns to everyone else in the offense. And now he’s down his star pass catcher in Kupp.

This is also a slow-tempo offense, which ranks No. 29 in pace. To the Rams’ credit, this offense has played a difficult schedule of opposing defenses, facing the season’s fourth most difficult schedule. That includes playing five games against defenses that rank in the top 10. In their other games with Stafford at the helm, they won 24-10 over the Panthers, 20-12 over the Cardinals and 31-27 over the Panthers, in a game that featured a wild flurry of points at the end.

The Saints defense is one of the most disappointing units in the NFL this season. If Sean McVay chose to do so, he could likely blend in rushes from Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers and Kyren Williams and move the ball moderately well on the ground. That will be the biggest question – what approach does McVay take without Kupp? But even with Kupp, this was a bad passing attack that couldn’t protect Stafford.

With Stafford getting back from a concussion, I wouldn’t be surprised if McVay leaned more into the run game than usual to keep his quarterback out of harm’s way. Especially if the Saints get a couple of licks on him early in this game, and it stays relatively close and lower scoring.

I’d lean toward the Under 39.

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