Gujarat ABP CVoter Survey: Upper Caste Vote Share To Stay With BJP, Congress Gets Max Votes

The state of Gujarat is slated to undergo elections later this year and all the political parties have already geared up for the race to form the next government in the state. As the political environment steadily hots up, ABP News in association with CVoter conducted an opinion poll in the state to tap the mood of voters ahead of the polls. 

The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is predicted to maintain its streak for the seventh time since 1995 with an estimated victory over 135 to 143 seats, which would represent a significant gain from its 2017 tally of 99 seats. 

The saffron party is expected to secure a vote share of 57 per cent from upper caste Hindus followed by Congress which may get around 26 per cent upper caste Hinu vote share while the debutant Aam Aadmi Party to get 14 per cent vote share in the 2022 Gujarat Assembly elections. 

39 per cent Dalit vote share is predicted to side with BJP, coming close to heel with Congress with 38 per cent Dalit vote share. AAP is predicted to get 20 per cent Dalit vote share. 

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The BJP is predicted to get 54% Other Backward Class vote share this time. Congress is predicted to get 26% vote share and AAP predicted to get 16% of OBC vote share.  

As far as the Muslim vote is concerned, BJP is predicted to experience a decline, getting 23 per cent of vote share which may translate to gain for Congress and AAP getting 45 per cent and 30 per cent Muslim vote share respectively. 

As per the opinion poll 41 per cent tribal voters are predicted to elect BJP. Congress is predicted to garner 37 per cent tribal vote share and AAP may get around 18 per cent votes by tribal communities of the state. 

The important Leuva Patels and Kadva Patel voters seemed to be sticking with BJP with 51% and 49% vote share respectively, whereas the congress is predicted to get 30% Leuva Patel vote share and 34% of Kadva patel vote share. AAP who is contesting for the first time in Gujarat Assembly polls is predicted to get 15% 14% of Leuva and Kadva patel votes respectively.

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Among women voters, the opinion poll suggests BJP running ahead with 45 per cent vote share. Congress lagging behind with just 35% and AAP with just 17% vote share.

43 per cent of young voters upto 25 years of age are expected to vote for BJP with Congress getting 39 per cent vote share. 

The poll for this survey is based on CATI interviews conducted between July 1 and September 30 with 34,511 respondents above the age of 18 and representing all segments from 182 constituencies of Gujarat. The survey takes into account a Margin of Error (MoE) between +/-3% to +/-5%. 

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